Morning Sigma Brief
Normal volatility (VIX 16.6). Overnight gaps: NQ gapped down 0.965%, GC gapped up 1.463%, SI gapped up 0.729%. Gap-fill or continuation setups in play.
☰ Market Conditions
MIXED 1↓ 6↔ 1↑
SMA Ribbon
ES
↔
Range
40%
NQ
▼
Downtrend
90%
YM
▲
Uptrend
85%
RTY
↔
Range
40%
CL
↔
Range
40%
GC
↔
Range
40%
SI
↔
Range
40%
ZB
↔
Range
40%
1H
ES
↔
Range
40%
NQ
↔
Range
40%
YM
▲
Uptrend
85%
RTY
▲
Uptrend
85%
CL
↔
Range
40%
GC
↔
Range
40%
SI
↔
Range
40%
ZB
↔
Range
40%
VIX
16.61
+0.00%
TNX
4.89
+0.00%
DXY
28.90
+0.00%
🎯 Prediction Markets
Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
5% ↓
$2.4M vol
How many Fed rate cuts in 2...
0 (0 bps)
$55.5M vol
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
$13.0M vol
⚠ Data from Polymarket. Not financial advice.
1 SD (68% of days)
2 SD (95% of days)
3 SD (99.7% of days)
ES
S&P 500 E-Mini
7,710.75
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
-9.75 (-0.126%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 7,720.50)
7,710.8
7,545
7,896
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 7,662.10 | 7,778.90 | 116.80 pts |
| 2 SD | 7,603.71 | 7,837.29 | 233.60 pts |
| 3 SD | 7,545.31 | 7,895.69 | 350.40 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
7,737.25
Yesterday Low
7,691.00
5-Day High
7,746.25
5-Day Low
7,490.00
ATR(14)
97.34
Trading within 1 SD — normal range
SHORT 1/10
— ES Swing Structure
NQ
Nasdaq 100 E-Mini
28,291.00
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
-275.75 (-0.965%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 28,566.75)
28,291.0
27,421
29,713
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 28,184.73 | 28,948.77 | 764.04 pts |
| 2 SD | 27,802.71 | 29,330.79 | 1,528.08 pts |
| 3 SD | 27,420.69 | 29,712.81 | 2,292.12 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
28,668.50
Yesterday Low
28,167.75
5-Day High
29,180.00
5-Day Low
27,615.75
ATR(14)
665.17
Trading within 1 SD — normal range
SHORT 1/10
— NQ Swing Structure
CL
Crude Oil
87.90
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
-0.22 (-0.250%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 88.12)
87.9
80
97
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 85.31 | 90.93 | 5.62 pts |
| 2 SD | 82.51 | 93.73 | 11.24 pts |
| 3 SD | 79.70 | 96.54 | 16.86 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
88.43
Yesterday Low
86.65
5-Day High
104.99
5-Day Low
86.65
ATR(14)
4.63
Trading within 1 SD — normal range
GC
Gold
4,132.60
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
+59.60 (+1.463%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 4,073.00)
4,132.6
3,899
4,247
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 4,015.16 | 4,130.84 | 115.68 pts |
| 2 SD | 3,957.32 | 4,188.68 | 231.36 pts |
| 3 SD | 3,899.49 | 4,246.51 | 347.04 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
4,155.80
Yesterday Low
4,067.00
5-Day High
4,155.80
5-Day Low
3,879.30
ATR(14)
83.25
Between 1-2 SD — extended move
SI
Silver
52.50
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
+0.38 (+0.729%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 52.12)
52.5
48
56
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 50.72 | 53.52 | 2.80 pts |
| 2 SD | 49.33 | 54.91 | 5.60 pts |
| 3 SD | 47.93 | 56.31 | 8.40 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
53.49
Yesterday Low
52.28
5-Day High
53.49
5-Day Low
48.55
ATR(14)
1.47
Trading within 1 SD — normal range
ZB
30-Year T-Bond
108.72
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Overnight Gap
+0.53 (+0.490%)
Standard Deviation Levels (from prev close 108.19)
108.7
106
110
| Level | Lower | Upper | Width |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SD | 107.52 | 108.86 | 1.34 pts |
| 2 SD | 106.86 | 109.52 | 2.68 pts |
| 3 SD | 106.19 | 110.19 | 4.02 pts |
Key Levels
Yesterday High
109.00
Yesterday Low
108.22
5-Day High
109.00
5-Day Low
107.25
ATR(14)
1.14
Trading within 1 SD — normal range
Trade Calls
7 setups
LONG
ES
Range Play
PENDING
R:R 1.0
Low VIX (16.6) favors range-bound action. Buy ES at 1 SD support 7,662.10, target mean.
Entry
7,662.10
Stop Loss
7,603.71
Target 1
7,720.50
Target 2
7,778.90
LONG
NQ
Range Play
PENDING
R:R 1.0
Low VIX (16.6) favors range-bound action. Buy NQ at 1 SD support 28,184.73, target mean.
Entry
28,184.73
Stop Loss
27,802.71
Target 1
28,566.75
Target 2
28,948.77
LONG
CL
Range Play
PENDING
R:R 1.0
Low VIX (16.6) favors range-bound action. Buy CL at 1 SD support 85.31, target mean.
Entry
85.31
Stop Loss
82.51
Target 1
88.12
Target 2
90.93
SHORT
GC
Gap Fill
PENDING
R:R 1.4
GC gapped up 1.46% overnight. Fading gap toward prev close 4,073.00.
Entry
4,132.60
Stop Loss
4,174.23
Target 1
4,073.00
Target 2
4,048.03
SHORT
GC
Mean Reversion
PENDING
R:R 1.2
GC trading above 1 SD. Fading toward prev close 4,073.00. Stop above 2 SD.
Entry
4,142.41
Stop Loss
4,200.25
Target 1
4,073.00
R:R
1.2:1
LONG
SI
Range Play
PENDING
R:R 1.0
Low VIX (16.6) favors range-bound action. Buy SI at 1 SD support 50.72, target mean.
Entry
50.72
Stop Loss
49.33
Target 1
52.12
Target 2
53.52
LONG
ZB
Range Play
PENDING
R:R 1.0
Low VIX (16.6) favors range-bound action. Buy ZB at 1 SD support 107.52, target mean.
Entry
107.52
Stop Loss
106.86
Target 1
108.19
Target 2
108.86
Brief Call Track Record (21 days)
Expectancy
0.7414%
Profit Factor
3.12
Total P&L
+106.32%
Win Rate
69.9%
Total Calls
150
27W /
66P /
40L /
17E
Avg Win: 1.52%
Avg Loss: -1.07%
| Call Type | Count | Wins | Win% | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean Reversion | 24 | 6 | 25% | -0.29% |
| Gap Fill | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | -0.12% |
| Range Play | 84 | 75 | 89.3% | +1.41% |
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance with approximately 30-second delay on futures and 15-minute delay on equities.
Standard deviation levels are calculated from the trailing 20 trading days of daily closes.
These levels represent statistical expectations, not guarantees — approximately 68% of trading days stay within 1 SD,
95% within 2 SD, and 99.7% within 3 SD of the previous close. This is not financial advice.